20070128

Space War - already begun?

Unless you have been hiding under a rock for the last 3 weeks, you might have heard about the Chinese and their Anti-satellite test. The People's Liberation Army launched an old ballistic missile and scored a impact kill on one of their old Weather sat's (approx 500 miles up).





The reason that this test has scared the beegeebers out of everyone (esp the US) is that this altitude is considered key - because the majority of the intelligence gathering satellites are below this altitude.

The New York Times published a graphical chart showing the altitude of this test - in relationship to the other satellites in orbit (shown on the right side of this page). Compare the number of blocks (each representing a satellite) in first column (the US) w/ the second column (China).

Attacks against these satellites would only server to blind the US, but not make us impotent. The GPS constellaton - is located at a higher altitude - so it can still be used to rain precision guided munitions down on our enemies. We just might not hit the 'right' target - if we can't see where it is when it is time to attack.

[For comparison purposes - the International Space Station orbits approx 190 nautical miles up, and the Ansari X prize - which was won by ScaledComposites SpaceShipOne only reached approx 62 nautical miles]

Another key point about the altitude that this test occurred at - is that the expected 900 major pieces of debris will now have to make it through all of those orbital paths, before it can fall out of the sky (and safely disintegrate on re-entry to Earth's atmosphere).

Space.com - continues to track this element of the story - most recently in this article.

The one thing that no one seems to be talking about - is that the Chinese could successfully 'test' their new toy several times, and creaet a large amount of debris in orbit - and that debris could damage several satellites. Think about it - they can destroy satellites quicker and cheaper than anyone else can deploy replacements.


Diagram of low Earth orbit satelites

US sources claim that this did not come as a surprise, but the hue and cry over this test has been dramatic. The US shared the intel on this test w/ several in the international community (more than just the usual UK & NATO), and several countries came out against this test. And one of the more interesting facts about this was that the Chinese did not immediately come out acknowledging this test - and that they were perfectly within their right to do so.

About a week before the Chinese test was made public - the Space Review published an article talking about how the US had realized that a hard kill ASAT would result in orbit debris that could do as much if not more harm to the orbital environment - and has been looking at ways to 'soft' kill or temporarily neutralize someone else's orbital assets.

And the US has tested some basic ASAT techniques. Not only was there the ASAT launched from high-altitude by a F-15 pilot, but along the same lines as the Chinese test - there was a US Army ABM project - the Homing Overlay Experiment. The picture below is from a test vehicle for this project that is currently hanging in the Space wing of the National Air & Space Museum out in Dulles, VA.

Homing Overlay Experiment - Kinetic Kill Vehicle




Defense Tech - has a good series of articles about this event - best started w/ the first article - here. At the bottom of the article - they include links to the subsequent articles and revelations about this test (one of the keys ones is that it took a significant amount of time before the Chinese admitted what they had done).

Then there is this link to MSNBC which has an animation showing the orbits of the debris from this test - compared to the orbit of the International Space Station - Video.

The most interesting (and short) article about all of the hulabaloo - has been this Wired News article - that was posted this past Thursday. I love the last line of it;

"If there was any chance that our military space budget was going to be cut, the Chinese have just ended that," Lewis said.


As several of the articles above have mentioned - this test is going to have long term effects in the Space and Defense policies of the US for a long time to come (at least until the next Presidential election).

Stay tuned.